A series of seven earthquakes recently rocked the East Bay. Three of the seven quakes had a magnitude of 3.0 or higher and could all be felt on the California State University, East Bay Hayward campus. 

According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), CSUEB was rattled by a 3.3 magnitude earthquake on February 13 at 11:52 a.m. Two minutes later, at 11:54 a.m., a 3.2 magnitude quake shook campus. The largest quake of the day jolted campus shortly before 2 p.m., with a magnitude of 3.6.

All seven earthquakes originated in the Hayward Hills, close to the Hayward Fault, which runs along Mission Boulevard at the bottom of the hill upon which CSUEB is built.    

CSUEB student Shelby Carrancho was working out at the Recreation and Wellness Center when the first quake occurred. “[I was] on the StairMaster. I didn’t feel the actual floor shake, but the windows rattled and the ceiling rattled too. I thought it was a gust of wind [at first] because the glass rattled.”

With multiple earthquakes occurring in one day, some worry that a larger quake is on the horizon.

“I am worried about the big one coming soon because I keep seeing news about it online and everything. It’s been so many years since the last one happened,” said CSUEB student Matthew Nassayan, who only felt two quakes that day. “I feel like it’s bound to happen soon… it can happen anytime, and we don’t know when.”

The last powerful earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred in 1868, with a magnitude of 6.8, according to the USGS. 

Professor Emeritus Mitchell Craig of CSUEB’s Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences has studied geology and geophysics for over forty years. He indicates the Hayward Fault’s hiatus since the 1868 quake is natural. “Different faults behave differently,” Dr. Craig states, “Here in Hayward, and in a lot of places in the immediate Bay Area, the faults tend to stick for long periods of time. They have to build up enough elastic strain before they break, but eventually, they will break.”   

It is a common belief that smaller earthquakes can relieve pressure from faults to prevent larger quakes from occurring. This is true to a certain extent, but in the case of the Hayward Fault, Dr. Craig shares that there is not enough seismic activity to have a significant effect. “Even though there are occasional small earthquakes, you’re gonna need magnitude 2s, 3s, and 4s to make a difference. You don’t get enough of those, nowhere near enough, to relieve the built-up stress.”

Dr. Craig did not seem to indicate that the February 13 earthquakes were a foreshadowing of “The Big One” in the near future. Dr. Craig said, “It could be five years from now. It could be fifty years from now. Very, very difficult to predict exactly when, but definitely we should be ready.”

If a massive earthquake were to happen on the Hayward Fault, how would the buildings on campus perform? The CSUEB buildings, especially newer ones such as the CORE, are properly structured to withstand heavy earthquakes. “From about 2008 onward, there was a new generation of buildings, and those newer buildings are great. They’re extremely seismically strong,” Dr. Craig discussed.  

Older buildings on campus, such as the annex and the north student union, have undergone extensive retrofitting, including the addition of steel bracing. Meiklejohn Hall, one of the older buildings on campus, is potentially at greater risk due to the large amount of brick.

To best ensure your safety during an earthquake, Dr. Craig recommends evaluating your environment, securing any heavy objects that could fall on your head, and exploring the idea of seismic retrofitting in your home. “If you’re in a place where you will be living for a while, that you own or your family owns, consider seismic retrofitting, especially if the house was built before the 1980s,” Dr. Craig said.

Dr. Craig also recommends visiting the website Did You Feel It? (DYFI), a citizen science project from the USGS that asks for public input on earthquakes they experienced. “It’s a way for people to add their own observations to the mix,” Dr. Craig says. “This set of tools has added a lot to our understanding of the effects of earthquakes in the past decade.”

A 3.9 magnitude earthquake shook the entire Bay Area on March 17. The USGS reports the quake originated in Dublin, west of the Calaveras Fault. The Calaveras Fault shares a direct connection with the Hayward Fault, sparking the potential for larger earthquakes in the East Bay.