The [Jan. 26] edition, the editor was no doubt correct in calling for the permanent suspension of on the construction of Key Stone Pipeline. While the article discussed the importance of local environmental effects, the article ignored another important issue, the global peaking of oil.

Oil and fossil fuels have been the foundation of modern society. But, what happens when we can’t produce a surplus?

In the case of every non-renewable resource, production increases exponentially until it peaks and declines at a exponential rate. This the basic premise of Herbert’s Theory.

The U.S. Joint Command warned last year that the surplus production of oil will likely disappear by 2012. By 2015 the U.S. could face a short fall 10 million barrels a day, amount almost equivalent to oil production of Saudi Arabia.

Even if demand were to remain flat, Nobuo Tanaka, Executive Director of IEA point out that “roughly four times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia – would need to be built by 2030 just to offset the effect of oilfield decline.”

In 2005 the Energy Department warned that the peaking of global oil will create “unprecedented risk management problems” for the U.S. In other words, peak oil spells the end of cheap oil and tipping point in a long decline.

Prior to World War II, the U.S. was the Saudi Arabia of oil, but production peaked in the 1970s, accurately predicted by King Herbert. Since then the U.S. has met its demand by importing and controlling foreign oil.

But now, the world production of oil is heading toward its peak.

This is not to say all the oil has been drilled out. Rather, that half of the oil has been drilled, and it’s the easy half.

While critics claim that deep sea drilling and natural gas will save us, there are several problems with this belief. Like oil, a finite resource, natural gas is likely to peak ten years after oil does.
Moreover, every resource has an EROI, the ratio of Energy Returned on Energy Invested. For every barrel of oil invested in the 1930s, the U.S. produced a 100 barrels of oil. Today, one barrel invested returns 10 to 15 barrels.

Despite tremendous investments in oil technology, oil’s EROI has continued to decline.

Once we reach a EROI of 1:1, oil production stops– long before the all the oil is out the ground. The only way to increase production at this point is to get oil faster out the ground.
When Supply Goes Down.

Fueled by growth in populations and development, demand among developing countries is skyrocketing, while the U.S. remains the single largest consumer. As the developed and underdeveloped countries compete, prices will be forced even higher and create tensions between nations.

At the same time reports have circulated challenging current oil reserve estimates. Based on analyses from Sadad Al-Husseini, former VP of Aramco, one-fourth of declared oil reserves are actually speculative resources.

According to the Hirsch Report, the Energy Department warn that alternatives must be initiated more than a decade in advance of the peak in order for the them to have a “substantial impact.” Other reports are less optimistic.

The U.S., most of any industrialized country, faces the greatest threat. The dismantling of public transportation and the expansion of highways has made driving the only conceivable option in the U.S.

While the sprawling development of Suburbia has structured our society to levels of incredible inefficiency. Without high speed rail, airplanes remain the most practical means to traverse the country.

These modes of transportation cannot realistically adapt to an atmosphere of expensive oil, not to their contributions to climate change.

Yet, the consequences for the U.S. could be even worse.

From petrochemicals to machinery, the agricultural system is heavily dependent on oil. Both food and healthcare (one of the most energy intensive sectors of the economy) will have increasing costs and decreasing outputs.

If the 1970s are any example, oil prices increased tenfold from the 1973 oil crisis to energy crisis of 1979 and never returned.

Without significant investment in alternative resources and a tremendous restructuring of infrastructure, a dimming cloud continues to grow over the viability of industrial society.
Because societies that can’t produce a surplus of energy, are societies in a state of collapse.